Sports wouldn't be as much fun if there weren't so many mathematical permutations available to argue why one team is going to beat another.
Allen St. John: By the Numbers - WSJ.com
... To see which teams pose the greatest threat to the Mavs in their quest for a first NBA Championship, we'll use a stat called PPP (Points Per 100 Possessions). Points per game is a linchpin of basketball analysis, but it can favor a team like the Phoenix Suns, which plays a running style, while undervaluing teams that run a more conservative half-court offense (which tends to limit scoring chances by taking time off the game clock). So instead, we'll look at stats that are normalized per each 100 possessions, to show a team's average efficiency. (Since the NBA doesn't account for possessions directly, basketball analyst Ken Pomeroy devised a formula that gets an accurate estimate using field-goal attempts, offensive rebounds, turnovers and free-throw attempts.)Offensive PPP shows that the Phoenix Suns, a big obstacle in the Mavs' path, are as formidable as their 61 wins indicate. They lead the league with 110.2 points per game and a 110 PPP (PPP stats are through April 15's games). But Dallas's first-round opponent, the Golden State Warriors, coached by former Dallas head coach Don Nelson, shows how misleading scoring averages can be. They ranked second in points per game, but 11th in PPP -- which would explain why they had only 42 wins. By contrast, the Mavs, with 67 wins, were ninth in points per game, but second in PPP with 107.6.
On defense, PPP says the league's best defensive team is in the East -- and isn't Detroit. The Chicago Bulls posted a 95.96 PPP Allowed. Just behind are the Houston Rockets with a 96.24, and the Spurs at 96.36. Despite being known as a defensive powerhouse, Detroit lies in the middle of the pack (100.31).
For a fuller picture of a team's true strength, subtract their PPP Allowed from their offensive PPP. The higher this “adjusted scoring margin” differential, the stronger the team. PPA Diff says the league's top dog will come from the Western Conference. The Spurs posted a 9.69 PPP Diff, followed by the Suns at 8.18, the Mavs at 8.05 and the Houston Rockets at 6.68. In the East, the Bulls topped the list with a much more modest 5.63 PPP Diff, ahead of Detroit's 5.01. And the defending champs, the Miami Heat, are far behind, with a PPP Diff of 0.89.
On the basis of just that formula (and ignoring discussion of group psychology, or referee interference, or other metrics), San Antonio and Chicago will meet in the finals. I'm sure the league office would love that match-up.
If that did happen, it would be the first time an NBA Final would present me with conflicted loyalties. The strike-shortened first championship by my (near) hometown Spurs over the Sprewell/Camby/Van Gundy Knicks doesn't count. Even though that was the first Knicks teams I rooted for since Walt Frazier retired (and that was only in retrospect, watching classic games), it still was the Knicks after all.
But I like these Bulls: no true offensive star, lots of ball and player movement, team defense, no national advertising spokesperson. I'm also glad the Bulls didn't mortgage their future by trading away all their young players in a gamble to add the mythical low-post scoring presence so many insist they need. I just hope the dark hints of league interference in playoff seedings is frivolous speculation, and not part of a ploy to have the Cleveland LeBrons (or the Heat) make it to the finals for television ratings purposes. Not that anyone would ever accuse David Stern of duplicity, right?
I won't be heartbroken if the Suns go to the Finals, at least they are fun to watch, and Coach Pornstache gives good post-game press conferences.
I definitely won't miss Joey “the Hammer of Newton Square” Crawford either.
Bring it on!
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